Geopolitical Compass #1

Farmers in Brussels, gas shortages in Colombia, weapons smuggling in Ukraine, South Africa collapsing and time to bring more 'democracy' to India?

Notable geopolitical events this week. Expand your perspective, gain context, and discover actionable insights.

Belgium

As tractors roll into Brussels, its getting harder for mainstream media to ignore the protests as farmers fight against the governments plans to shut down farms under the guise of helping the climate. Let's be clear, this is not incompetence by bureaucrats, this is intentional economic vandalism designed to bring about food shortages. Desperate people are more likely to comply with government..... until the point they are pushed too far.

Colombia

Natural gas shortages in Colombia? Colombian E&P players including Ecopetrol (EC), Frontera Energy (CA: FEC) and Geopark (GPRK) are valued for armageddon.

Analysts fear if Petro proceeds with ending hydrocarbon exploration, then Colombia’s already meagre oil and natural gas reserves will rapidly dissipate, meaning the country will no longer be energy self-sufficient and face a potential crisis by as early as 2024.

Socialists will find the harsh realities of energy shortages will trump climate fairy tales and pivot when the time comes, as Germany has recently demonstrated.

A lot of money can be made when an investment gets repriced from absolutely atrocious to plain lousy.

Guyana

Everyone is interested in a piece of the massive oil province developing in offshore Guyana. In addition to US, Canadian and Chinese firms already active in exploration and production, Brazil, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and India are taking an active interest in bidding for upcoming block auctions later this year. It appears India may be in prime position.

Meanwhile Apache (APA) is growing increasingly confident in its adjoining Block 58 in Suriname, 600 million barrel resource estimate and currently drilling for more with partner TotalEnergies (TTE).

India

Time for Regime Change?

As India continues to forge its own future and not fall into line with US and EU dictates against Russia, Bilderberg is ramping up an offensive to oust Modi and bring the nation back to heel. Amazingly they even trotted out the grandfather of regime change himself George Soros to explain why Modi has to go. A strong and independent India will aid a resurgent Eurasia and cannot be allowed in their eyes.

Another US Alliance Falling Apart

India is also drifting further away from the ‘Quad’ anti-China alliance between itself, the US, Japan and Australia. This is encouraging as a warmer relationship and more co-operation between India and China would benefit both nations citizens and the Asian region as a whole. The usefulness of bodies and groups such as the Quad set up by the US and its underlings to goad and hamstring its adversaries including China, Russia and Iran are numbered.

Middle East

Israel continues to ratchet up tensions with Iran, currently under the guise of preventing Iran achieving capacity for nuclear weapons. Always leaning on its big brother the US for its security guarantee, Israel seem either oblivious or purposefully ignorant to the fact that an Iran even without nuclear weapons still has sufficient firepower to carpet bomb the entirety of Israel twice over with conventional artillery. That's before taking into account additional firepower of Hezbollah in Lebanon and forces in Gaza that would also join in. Will Israel ever stop meddling in the wider Middle East? Suffice to say, I have no interest in investing on the TASE.

Meanwhile, initial reports coming out that Iran may have discovered the world's second largest lithium reserve.

Namibia

The President of Namibia tells former President of the Bundestag some homes truths;

“Germans come here as they want. So why Chinese, talk about Germans. How you are treating us there. Chinese don’t treat us like that….. Every time a westerner comes, its about the Chinese.”

With each passing week, the Global South stands up more to a hypocritical West.

Pakistan

Is Pakistan close to collapse? Or presenting an opportunity? While the chart of the KSE-100 is camouflaged by the countries 31.5% inflation rate, the market currently sits on a PE multiple around 4. Assuming the Global X MSCI Pakistan ETF (PAK) doesn't close down, is it finally bottoming out after being in almost permanent decline since its inception in 2015? Over 50% of the fund is invested in the materials and energy sector.

Too risky for our taste, but interesting all the same.

Russia

NATO Supreme Allied Commander knows the precipice politicians are pushing them toward. Will sanity prevail?

Russia abandons the Bologna education system:

"The fact that the Russian education system has centuries-old unique traditions that we can rightly be proud of, and we have no right to lose this heritage, we must carefully use it, including the legacy of the Soviet school, which was rightfully considered one of the best in the world"

Apparently Russian parents don't want their children learning about 26 different genders.

Weapons Smuggling Out of Ukraine

Does anyone seriously believe massive amounts of weapons won't end up on the black market?

Why U.S. Officials Claim 'No Evidence' of Weapons Smuggling in Ukraine

Negotiations

Lavrov this week reminds us it’s the West that doesn’t want negotiations to take place over the Ukraine conflict, and as the loyal puppet his is - Zelenskyy made it a criminal offence to negotiate with Russia.

South Africa

When sanity does not prevail and inept government policy plays out. South Africa with continual blackouts is a country on the verge of collapse. For those with investments in South Africa, this thread is worth a read; infrastructure collapse, crime rising, half the population receiving government grants. Are the days of South Africa being a meaningful part of BRICS over?

Taiwan

At the same time the US warns China not to supply weapons to Russia, it acts to increase its shipments of weapons to Taiwan. We can supply your opponents, but you can't supply ours, because...... reasons!

United Kingdom

Govern me harder.

Bitcoin

Nation-state level incentives for the continuation of fiat money.

The power of fiat money gives governments the ability to become more authoritarian. Not only do we get a welfare/warfare state, but we also get a surveillance state, a police state and militaristic, corrupt tyrannies. The siren song of Marxism, of positivist law and an authoritarian vision are some of its rotten fruits. The unprecedented destructive power of governments in the last 100 years can be laid squarely at the feet of fiat money.

"Governments, no matter what form they take, have as a major priority the goal of staying in power. This is true not only of dictatorships, but also of representative democracies. The differences between them are the means employed. A dictatorship may arrest, jail and kill political dissidents. A representative democracy may give new entitlement benefits to political allies. The goal in each case is to neutralize threats to continued rule and to strengthen the government's supporters."

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