Geopolitical Compass #29
Geopolitical Compass #29
The hopes for Meloni putting Italy above the wider EUSSR agenda are fast fading.
This Week:
The CCP: Canada Communist Party
China the world’s largest car exporter
Coal’s death has been greatly exaggerated
Are EV taxpayer subsidies finally going to go away?
Mass media programming
G20 in two photos
Italy’s Meloni proving she’s been captured
Middle East leaders
Russia’s shipbuilding industry strengthening
Canada
Welcome to Communist Canada, where to try and gain traction as his party plummets in the polls, Trudeau is introducing more populist policies like threatening a grocery tax on retailers to try and win back voters.
“Large grocery chains are making record profits,” Trudeau emphasized. “Those profits should not be made on the backs of people who are struggling to feed their families.”
Let’s ignore the fact that it’s government money printing (inflation) that is causing the higher resultant prices of everything from energy, to housing, to food. Here is the bottom line of George Weston, the parent company of Canada’s largest grocery chain Loblaw:
An obscene net profit margin of 2.9%. Those monsters! What happens when you disincentivize profit in private industry? Supply dries up. But then if you’re a loyal globalist who is intent on reducing the world population as Trudeau is, making food more scarce is not such a bad thing.
China
Now the world’s largest car exporter, overtaking Japan.
Which means more demand for energy (thermal coal), steel (iron ore and coking coal), aluminum and plastic.
Coal
Speaking of coal. The narrative in December 2020…
The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body, reckons that global use will never surpass its pre-covid peak.
Yet coal still accounts for around 27% of the raw energy used to power everything from cars to electric grids.
In Britain the last coal-fired power plants could close as soon as 2022.
Now let’s look at reality in 2022:
Oops. From 27% of worldwide electricity production to 35%. The same IEA mentioned above is also expecting another record year in 2023. Of course it’s always just one more year, and then the decline will start.
This is why it literally pays you to ignore narrative and seek out the truth, what we try to provide you with each week at NWP.
Thermal coal miners from March 2020 to today. The Economist cover buy signal strikes again, in fact they almost perfectly timed the bottom.
Similarly while the steel industry is slowly moving toward electric arc furnaces (EAF) with the US being amongst the higher uptake (EAF’s don’t require coke input), most nations are much further behind and we’re still decades away from the world not needing metallurgical coal.
The graphs for some met coal miners is even more dramatic than thermal.
And coal miners - both thermal and metallurgical - are still at dirt cheap valuations today. The narrative hasn’t changed, ‘coal will still be dead in 5 years’ and a large portion of the market isn’t allowed to invest in coal, restricted by ESG mandates and activist holders.
Good for those that don’t have to bow to the politically correct police.
Electric Vehicle Reality
As EV’s gain more traction, governments are realising how much it’s costing them to virtue signal.
The NSW government is to scrap electric vehicle rebates and stamp duty exemptions, arguing that it is “pushing up the cost of electric vehicles”, and has also confirmed it will also impose a road tax on EVs.
The NSW decision will effecting add up to $5,500 to the upfront, on-road cost of an EV. The rebates and stamp duty exemptions were introduced by the previous Coalition government in order to reduce the high up front cost of EVs.
I’ve always been a big believer that if a business or industry can’t exist without government handouts, then it shouldn’t exist period.
Let the end consumer and markets decide when the real costs are on show. Why on earth should taxpayers subsidise their neighbour buying a higher cost EV that requires much more commodity inputs to produce than a regular vehicle and runs on hydrocarbon fuel anyway?
If EV’s still power ahead, the market has spoken, but it’s not a taxpayers job to foot the bill.
France
A illustration of how mainstream media today is designed to simply get clicks, and push a narrative.
Now let’s get past the initial shock this article is on AOL, apparently that still exists?! Discerning people wouldn’t bother reading once they get to ‘says Macron.’ But the media know a large number of people simply read the headline and maybe the first paragraph, which reads:
The French ambassador to Niger and other French diplomats are “literally being held hostage at the French embassy,” according to French president Emmanuel Macron.
“Oh wow, how terrible for the French Ambassador. What’s wrong with Niger? How can they be so cruel?” Media counts on people taking that sound bite and moving on.
But even the propaganda pieces can’t flat out lie, or they’ll incriminate themselves. So if you read on in this fluff piece - which most don’t - you can discern the actual truth. The article goes on to say:
Asked if he would work on bringing the ambassador back home, Macron emphasized the authority of ousted Niger president Mohamed Bazoum: “I will do whatever we agree on with President Bazoum because he is the legitimate authority and I speak with him every day.”
In other words a simple instruction for him to leave, and the Ambassador can be on the next plane back, smoking a cigarettes and eating a croissant on Boulevard Saint-Germain before the weekend arrives.
Colonna (French Foreign Minister) added that Itte “will stay as long as we want him to stay,” and that his return is Macron’s decision.
Get it? Macron is forcing him to remain in place, without power, running water or food. So if anyone is holding the French Ambassador hostage, it’s the French President who refuses to allow him to return after being asked to leave by Niger.
This isn’t even an extensive propaganda piece, reaching a mere 260 words. Yet it still works to mislead the masses and cover it’s tracks within that short space.
G20
Then we have some pictures you won’t see in mass media. Pictures can often speak a thousand words.
The body language screams to you, regardless of whatever sanitised press statements are released after the fact.
Italy
It seems Prime Minister Meloni was either all hot air on the election trail with her tough ‘Italy first’ stance, or has been handled. Either way, she’s certainly not putting Italy first.
From increasing tensions with China:
To failing on one of her big promises to stop illegal immigration on Italy’s shores. The sight on the Italian island of Lampedusa on Wednesday as 35 boats from Africa landed in 30 minutes:
8,000 migrants in 36 hours onto an Italian island with a population of 6,000.
From Jan. 1 to July 12, 73,414 boat migrants reached Italy against 31,333 in the same period last year and more than for the whole of 2021, according to Interior Ministry data.
If you don’t think the people smugglers are given a behind closed doors, tacit approval for all this, I have a boat to sell you.
Meloni appears to have fallen completely into line with the globalist agenda to continue the destruction of Europe. She may not be happy about it and is ‘coping’ however she must to get through.
But the result remains the same, the further weakening of Italy.
Middle East
While the Middle East still has many issues, it’s actually refreshing to see a young leader determined to progress his society for the better, as opposed to the geriatric leaders we see clinging to power in the West.
Leaders in the Middle East are working towards more amicable, pragmatic and even friendly relations with former foes as was exhibited at the recent BRICS conference - Saudi Arabia and Iran both joining. They understand outside influences that have worked to keep them apart for a long time.
More people are recognising the future potential of the Middle East in a bifurcating world, as evidenced by capital and people flooding to the region from all over the globe.
Russia
This month Russia launched two new icebreaker ships; an oil tanker and an LNG carrier.
This is a significant milestone for two reasons. First it’s further proof that Russia is serious about increasing transit through the Northern Sea Route which cuts both transit time and cost of moving product from Russia’s Western provinces to Asia (and Asian transports in return), as well as circumventing the possibility of any Western interference as can be done through the southern routes.
The second significant point of these new ships is that until now Russia was largely reliant on South Korea for it’s shipbuilding needs. While Samsung Heavy Industries still provided significant assistance and the hulls were transported from South Korea, the Zvezda shipyards in Russia’s far east did the bulk of the building. A further step toward Russia’s increasing self reliance in shipbuilding capacity in the future.