Geopolitical Compass #32

Are we finally being presented with the pivot away from Ukraine?

This Week

• German reversal

• Inflation not hidden by manipulated statistics

• An Israeli pivot

• UK’s dreams of grandeur

Germany

Who would have thought shutting down your nuclear plants, destroying your gas pipelines from Russia and spending trillions of euros on energy subsidies and renewable boondoggle projects could lead to this?

If only somebody could have seen this coming.

Inflation

We’re all already feeling the effect of hyperinflation in virtually anything we buy today, whether it be assets or daily goods.

The headline figure you hear trumpeted in the press is manipulated to keep it as low as possible, and remember even those manipulated figures ‘falling’ just means prices are rising less than they were a few months ago. Prices aren’t dropping.

I’ve mentioned words to this effect numerous times on NWP, but sometimes a video speaks a thousand words on how everyday people are affected by poor government decision making and manipulation of money.

As the bond markets break, prepare for the government money printer to go into overdrive. Price increases will be getting much worse in the coming years.

Israel

Hamas launches a surprise attack on Israel, purportedly using weapons that were destined for Ukraine (shocker!). Numerous reports filtering in including;

• Lebanon’s Hezbollah have warned through Egyptian mediators that if ground operations are launched against Palestine by Israel, Hezbollah will join the war.

• Israel is moving weapons to the south.

• Palestinian fighters entering Israel from the Jordanian border.

• Afghanistan’s Taliban have reportedly requested passage through Iran to join the fight with Hamas.

At these events are unfolding, some or none of this may be accurate, the conflict may be over shortly after it begins, it’s too early to call anything. But should we see this conflict escalate into a more prolonged event, could it be we are finally seeing the diversion the West needs to pull attention away from a failing situation in Ukraine?

Knowing the support and emotion surrounding Israel in the Western world, a small publicised conflict there could prove to be the cheap(er) but attention-grabbing narrative needed to move the world on.

Nothing new here. Pivot has become the US’s middle name.

On the ground, they’re already on the case to attract attention as a female IDF soldier being taken into custody starts doing a live TikTok.

Right now there are more questions than answers. How much is actually happening on the ground vs a staged psyop by outside forces? Will a wider conflict erupt? How long before Western media blames it all on Putin? Will virtue signalers be forced to replace their sea of blue and yellow flags with that of blue and white? Time will tell.

Either way, long flag makers.

United Kingdom

This week the UK defence secretary tested the waters with the British public about escalating the conflict in Ukraine:

The new defence secretary, Grant Shapps, said he has held talks with army leaders about deploying British troops within Ukraine for the first time for a training programme.

Shapps, who met Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, for talks in Kyiv earlier this week, said the proposal being discussed would reduce the reliance on the UK and other Nato members’ bases.

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President and Deputy Head of the Security Council, made it clear in no uncertain terms the consequences for any official British troops on Ukrainian territory:

One newly minted cretin - the British Minister of Defense - decided to transfer English training courses for Ukrainian soldiers to the territory of Ukraine itself. That is, turn your instructors into legal targets for our Armed Forces. Knowing full well that they will be mercilessly destroyed. And no longer as mercenaries, but precisely as British NATO specialists.

Back in the UK, backlash from public opinion was - while kept quiet on mass media - swift and harsh, forcing the Prime Minister to deny, merely one day later, that there were any plans of sending troops into Ukraine.

These politicans don’t live in silos, they do talk to each other. This was a test to gauge public reaction for yet further ways to increase tensions and provoke Russia.

Make no mistake, elements in the British aristocracy are hell bent on escalating the Ukraine conflict into a wider war. Centuries long Russophobia doesn’t just go away, especially when they’re so close to getting what they want they can taste it.

As for sending British naval ships into the Black Sea, there’s just two little problems.

First off, Turkiye controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus via the Montreux Convention. No NATO ship can enter this body of water without Turkiye’s permission. While Erdogan does enjoy playing both sides (and Putin remains extraordinarily patient with him), even Erdogan would be overstepping allowing this type of escalation.

The second little issue with sending US, UK or any other NATO ships into the Black Sea is that, it is in reality a Russian lake. Swarming with military ships and submarines, and the ability to track, monitor and if needed destroy any craft in the water.

Sending NATO ships from countries not already on the Black Sea coast (ie. UK, US, French etc) into these waters during an already hot conflict would be a powder keg waiting to go off, particularly with the UK navy’s penchant for provocation.

Thankfully enough, people in Britain realise this and shadowy establishment figures have been foiled - for the moment - in yet another attempt at escalation. But they will try again.

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