Geopolitical Compass #47
Red Sea crisis sends shipping rates soaring.
This Week:
Egypt is buying what Russia is selling.
Poland… free at last!
The shipping crisis is only just getting started.
French oopsie in Ukraine.
UK will definitely not introduce conscription… until it does.
Egypt
While the West increases exports of righteous lectures and sanctions to the world, Russia is increasing exports of its nuclear technology.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Tuesday inaugurated the construction of a new unit at Egypt's Dabaa nuclear power plant via video link, as Moscow moves ahead with its global nuclear ambitions.
The power plant is being built by the Russian state corporation Rosatom at a reported cost of $30 billion, and will consist of four power units with a combined capacity of 4.8 gigawatts.
Which export do you think developing countries would prefer in a an atmosphere of rising energy costs?
Poland
Many are very positive on the investment prospects of Poland. After all, what could go wrong, now that the former EUSSR President has taken over the reigns of government in Poland, freedom and democracy can finally prevail!
Poland can now open itself to more Western European style immigration, genders and economic growth rates!
Shipping
If you’re not paying attention to the effects of the Red Sea crisis on the shipping sector, you probably should be. We have missiles flying:
In addition to the Red Sea turmoil, Somali piracy is on the rise again.
This type of turmoil is going to lead to higher for longer rates on multiple shipping sectors.
Crude tanker rates are yet to react, but clean tanker rates are soaring and car carrier rates are also rising steeply as old contracts come up for renewal. Keep in mind the product tanker order book is at industry lows, fleet age is rising (necessitating slow steaming to comply with environmental regulations) and now being forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope adds substantially to tonne-miles and voyage times.
Kristoffersen, whose company operates 128 car carriers, said the global 766-vessel fleet was “sold out” even before the diversions, meaning that all the available capacity was in use. That had already been acting as “a constraint” on vehicle movements even before the latest crisis — a problem that diversions to a longer route would only exacerbate.
Double digit yields abound in the shipping space and vessel values continue to rise. The market is steadily reacting, but still appears to be pricing this as a short term situation that will resolve soon.
Here is a break down of the Red Sea crisis on different sectors:
What happens to profits of tankers and other shipping sectors if the Red Sea crisis goes on longer than expected? What happens to rates if the US neocons finally get their decades long wish of war with Iran granted and conflict escalates?
Ukraine
Is this the same tweet the US State Department used before pulling out of Afghanistan? Asking for a friend.
French Soldiers
Russia is growing tired of NATO soldiers ‘foreign mercenaries’ attacking it.
Which of course the French establishment denies.
Of course not. These are simply French men who were in the military, chose to resign their posts, and of their own free will (supposedly without getting paid) volunteer to go fight in Ukraine free of charge, after which point should they return alive are promised to slot straight back into their prior military position. Definitely NOT French soldiers or mercenaries!
I’m sure French diplomats speaking legalese have covered themselves and are technically accurate in their denials, but Russia understands the reality and is getting fed up.