Geopolitical Compass #53
Geopolitical Compass #53
Bitcoin rising, Germany falling.
This Week:
Bitcoin risk adjusted returns.
BTC store of value vs others.
Supply demand imbalance = 🚀
German politicians ready to commit ritual suicide?
Chief US Warmonger out.
Bitcoin
Risk adjusted returns so far in 2024 for portfolio managers to consider:
“But we’re in a bull run. What about in a bear market?”
Store of Value
Much of the world stores their wealth in property and the stock market. Obviously companies and property produce a cashflow that Bitcoin doesn’t (without going in depth into various ways of creating a yield in Bitcoin which add risk). But for a simple place to park your wealth, while companies provide cashflow, they also add multiple levels of risk; management execution, market failure, and technology shifts among many.
They also provide less cashflow relative to the investment you make the more the company’s value multiple expands as people use it as a store of value.
For those parking their wealth and seeking security of capital and growth, will Bitcoin pose a more attractive option in the future and take an increasing share of wealth store? A decentralised asset, with no management risk and limited supply.
Is it probable that the market cap will increase meaningfully from here considering the lack of operational, managerial, market and government risk it has compared to other comparable sized assets?
Supply Demand Imbalance
The outsized gains that occur when new demand enters a market with limited supply:
Germany
After a peaceful half century or so, it appears the German political class are intent on once again going to war with Russia. This week conscription is back on the agenda with an official plan to come in April.
The Federal Chancellery practiced an ‘emergency move’ to a new secret headquarters…. for no reason.
While the German Army’s general staff were exposed plotting an attack on the Crimea Bridge.
The leak, which is 38 minutes long and dated February 19, reveals officers discussing the operational and targeting details of the homegrown Taurus long-range missiles, which Germany was mulling sending to Ukraine. Interestingly, the way it was being discussed insinuated that it had already been agreed upon.
The officers were also discussing means of maintaining plausible deniability so that Germany could tread as closely as possible to the "red line" of direct involvement without crossing it.
Many years ago I was denied a German passport due to a technicality. Probably not a bad result in hindsight.
United States
Ding dong, the warmonger’s gone.
An utterly despicable warmonger who played a large part in bringing the war in Ukraine to fruition (after years of trying) has been booted out.
Seems the string pullers in the corridors of power in Washington DC want the Ukraine conflict ended before the November election.
Europe will be left to it’s own soon enough and I can imagine the talking heads in Brussels are starting to panic. We can see above those in Berlin certainly are.