Is This What a 'Failing Russia' Looks Like?

People are imposing their own idea of what 'winning' a war looks like. What if they're wrong?

There is so much talk about how poorly Russia is performing in Ukraine, and that defeat is merely moments away. Even from people who are generally more aware of the darker side of how the world works, I see comments like this:

When Russia actually does something I’ll change my opinion. If they don’t button this up by the end of summer I will consider it a loss for Russia. And further proof that their military isn’t anything near what y’all have claimed it is.

Many in the US, Western Europe, and the UK only understand and expect an overwhelming show of force to win a war. After all, it’s what they know from recent conflicts in Iraq and Libya. They expect a final nail in the coffin by Russia to lock things down.

It doesn’t seem to occur to them that Russia may be achieving precisely what it wants in Ukraine by going along with this conflicts elongation imposed by the West. Especially when Russia is still not being offered any form of negotiations to de-escalate and discuss their reasonable goals of a non-threatening, neutral Ukraine on their border issued months before the entire conflict began.

To my mind, Russia is currently succeeding in;

• Wearing down the West’s arsenal of weapons. For example the Patriot battery destroyed in Ukraine this week fired thirty missiles in two minutes before it was destroyed (likely the operators deployed all missiles knowing destruction was imminent and resultant damage would be lessened with no missiles left inside). The US only produces 250 Patriot missiles per year and just lost 30 in 2 minutes.
  Also, remember that many deals for weapons you hear about are promises for future deliveries once these weapons have been manufactured, which will take years.

• Russia is eliminating Ukrainian manpower that continues to be drip fed into the meat grinder by rounding up random men in the streets.

• Russia has maintained support and relations with 80% of the world’s population with only the exception of the ‘democratic West.’

• If Covid taught us anything, building up the sheep’s resistance to tyranny and narrative takes a while. Russia is wearing down public opinion and support for the war in the West - already visible by the pivot of headlines and more truth being allowed to permeate.

If the Western masses were told in March 2022 they needed to go to war with Russia the moment it crossed the border into Ukraine to defend democracy blah blah, they may have been coaxed into it like they are with everything else, including covid and climate.

Since Russia was more strategic and precise in its operations (as opposed to blanket bombing a la US military) and even now just slowly grinds away at all the points mentioned above, the appetite for direct conflict with Russia is virtually gone outside of fear-mongering politicians desperate not to lose their narrative for spending and distraction. US and EUSSR politicians will not be able to muster the support from normies to escalate this to a heightened conflict.

The West is stuck in a no man’s land until they finally declare ‘victory’ and move to de-escalate. Meanwhile, Russia’s execution of this operation has engendered support from the rest of the world outside the ‘democractic West’ - another key strategic win which would likely not have been achieved if they had destroyed Ukraine from the outset. Remember, the destruction of Ukraine is NOT Russia’s goal (despite Western narrative); they want to stop Western aggression on their border, which is what the compliant and corrupt Ukrainian regime has become a proxy for since 2014.

But the longer the West waits to stop its support of the deaths in Ukraine, the more weapons, soldiers and public support are destroyed. Who exactly is losing from this elongation?

Russia is achieving quite a lot with its slow grind in the Ukraine. Is it a conventional war by historical standards? No. Is it a strategy that Russia is taking advantage of and executing to slowly weaken their enemies and deter or even remove the ability for a full frontal attack? I would argue yes. More Western munitions and Ukrainian men (and also NATO personnel) are lost every week. Does this make the West and Ukraine stronger or weaker?

Am I 100% on target? Likely not, the fog of war. But to assume you understand Russia’s end goal when likely they have not even determined that themselves and is dependent on how facts on the ground and in the political realm progress is presumptuous.

This issue is existential for Russia; it must succeed or see its society face ultimate destruction - as is the stated purpose of Western leaders. Conversely, for the West, Ukraine is simply another distraction to keep you looking away from the unelected elite’s financial debauchery and political agenda. Once it has worn out its usefulness, Ukraine will be cast aside like all the other distractions that eventually fade.

That day will come, but I am not under any delusions - the delay is because the West is prolonging tensions. Every new weapons deal announced by the US and EUSSR is more funding for Swiss chalets and Florida mansions. Russia is happy to oblige since it helps toward its stated aims of a neutralised Ukraine and demilitarised NATO. Not because Russia does not have the ability, weapons or manpower to go in harder.

Something to keep in mind next time you hear tales of how Russia is failing in Ukraine.