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Truth vs Ideology: Why Geopolitics & Financial Markets Don’t Lie
The world of geopolitics and investment provides those who look for it with unfiltered, raw truth, regardless of what the agenda-driven dimwits in government and think tanks tell us.
Truth is a precious commodity in a world increasingly burdened with false information or outright lies.
These two realms present us not with what intentions desire but with the realities of actions taken. You can dress up the pig of poor policy and decisions in front of the cameras all you like, but when the rubber hits the road - we see the outcomes that can’t be hidden. We hear the feeble attempts to explain away the failures with more pathetic excuses.
Politicians are liars at the best of times; it’s part of their incentive process. They don’t win votes and, therefore the power they so hungrily crave by telling the truth, preaching belt-tightening and announcing challenging problems and situations without promising magical solutions.
We’re told everything will be fine if we allow them to implement whatever fix they have deemed will work this month. All we need do is trust them. Their hair-brained policies have led humanity to awful outcomes for thousands of years. Markets, intelligent entrepreneurs and hard-working people succeed despite their governments, not because of them. What has remained constant throughout history is the reality on the ground.
Geopolitics Speak Truth
Emperors and kings have decried an evil outside threat throughout history and taken their people to war. When things went wrong, they continued to proclaim how victorious their actions were, deflecting any resistibility, until at some point, the situation became so apparent to all, they were dethroned or killed (Saint Elensky will experience this phenomena soon). Those paying attention to the reality on the ground; the losses in battle, the mounting casualties in infantries, the continued loss of more land and borders - knew the truth. We are seeing this in Ukraine as we speak. We’re told glorious Ukraine continues winning victoriously every day. The concealed reality on the ground says otherwise.
This is often why we see a stark difference in speech and suggested action between political leaders and military leaders. The politicians tell you what they want you to believe and what you want to hear. They must for you to continue offering them your support for their actions. The military leaders, in the meantime, assess the realities and prospects of a given situation - they have real-world considerations like logistics and often simple physics to deal with. They suggest different courses of action and often preach restraint as they see the likely outcome of politically motivated moves on the battlefield.
Time and again, we see the Pentagon needing to walk back statements made by the White House. The Pentagon must deal with how the world is while the White House can bullsh!t its way in front of the cameras, writing cheques that the Pentagon can’t cash.
An instance of political dogma vs the military reality was played out recently in Ukraine when Elensky (don’t pronounce the Z!) insisted against the advice of his military general staff to attempt a retake of Zmeinnyi (Snake) Island, previously lost to the Russians. Snake Island is a rock off the border of Ukraine and Romania, of no particular consequence or use to Ukraine anymore, which now has more significant problems. The island was only being cleared on the way through by the Russian Navy to not leave an enemy force behind them as they patrolled the coast.
But Elensky rejected the advice of his career military officials in favour of trying to score a cheap public relations stunt on Russia’s Victory Day celebrations. But as happens, the reality of kinetic warfare trumped the political desires of inept bureaucrats. Ukraine lost thirty drones, three Su-24 Bombers, one Su-27 fighter jet, three armoured amphibious assault boats, ten helicopters and over fifty soldiers killed.
The Ukrainian general staff knew an outcome of this nature was likely and that the island held little value in the bigger fight against Russia. But an unaccountable leader looking to ingratiate himself to the world did not care. He sent his men to die in the slim hopes they might provide him with a media win. After the failure, the losses were kept quiet, and the discussion was pivoted to something else, anything else.
Ironically as Western elected leaders goose-step us ever closer to a new world war, it is hopeful it will be the military branch of goverment that will walk us back from the edge, forcing some reason on the egotistical dimwits that notionally rule us all.
Unlike an indoctrinated and brainwashed West, saner geopolitical heads prevail in the Global South:
Financial Markets Reflect Truth
We see similar truths presented to us in the financial world. We are told we can scale back and remove hydrocarbons from use in favour of wind, sunshine and unicorn farts to power a green future for eternity. All will be fine if we trust our politicians. If we just trust the
dictated narrative science.
Instead, we see increasing instances of energy crises throughout the west. We see windmills freezing. We see a pitifully low meaningful supply of baseload energy from glorious renewable sources and instead ever-increasing hydrocarbons uptake. We see renewables only remain economically viable due to massive government subsidies. They hide from us that the construction costs of these renewable forms of energy are skyrocketing. Oil and gas don’t need artificial government subsidies you’re paying for to power humanity. The talk is all there on renewables; the successful results are missing. What would happen to these renewable sources and providers if the government couldn’t print money anymore?
We are told Russia is evil and bent on destroying us all. We should cut it off entirely from the rest of the world. We don’t need Russia or her goods to function wonderfully, thank you very much. We will crucify Russia and turn her ‘Ruble to rubble.’ But the financial markets know better. Russia possesses the commodities the world needs to run - you know, the real stuff like food and energy, not paper confetti money. Of course, there are other sources of these resources, but you can’t remove as large a producer as Russia and expect no financial (and social) consequences as the West if finding out now. For decades, inept ideologically driven energy policy has driven European nations into Russia’s arms. Still, they continue the kicking and screaming to absurd levels that we can all live without Russia.
The truth comes out in the financial and geopolitical arena. We see the Russian Ruble soaring, increasing in value beyond where it was before the start of the Ukraine hostilities. We see company after company still trying to do business with Russia despite publicly proclaiming their disdain (I don’t blame them, but stop with the virtue signalling!). We see politician after politician talking tough to Putin from one side of their mouth, while on the other, they still buy all his wares and comply with his requirements to pay him in rubles. We see sane countries - almost all of them outside of the EU and Five Eyes - continue to cordially do business with Russia or retain diplomatic relations as they comprehend the West’s motives and trade realities.
While the puppets in front of microphones trumpet how much they are winning and how the world doesn’t need Russia’s resources, financial markets reflect the truth of the situation. Soaring prices of oil, gas, coal, and commodities of all types that are used to make these miracle green technologies and pretty much everything else in the world. You can scream at the world’s people for being evil enough to warm and feed themselves all you like. You can pass as many stupid laws as you want. The truth then gets reflected in the prices of everything required to provide for the world’s running. The reality is that we live in a world of resources that will skyrocket in price when stupid political decisions restrict supply evermore in a generally plentiful world.
The scary reality is that because of the stupid energy policies of the EU, European industry energy demand will have to be curtailed. That is, the de-industrialisation of Europe must commence. That is the scary reality that can’t be avoided when trying to remove reliable energy sources from the system and replace them with expensive, unreliable sources just to give yourself some warm and fuzzies - erroneously and needlessly, I might add. Who wants to shut down their business first to support the climate, any volunteers?
Truth vs Fiction
People who see and deal with realities are decried as evil or ignorant. Of course we can power ourselves with wind and sun; let’s kill all the oil investment now. Let’s turn off the nuclear plants. Let’s keep the coal in the ground. Join us in our delusions as social cohesion crumbles around us.
We don’t live in a world of political and ideological fairytales. We live in a world where people without energy or enough food die every day.
The politicians sitting in their palaces, castle or mansions don’t deal with this reality. They deal with how they want the world to be and how they think they will stay in power. Their decisions have little consequence for them personally, at least until the situation becomes untenable for the masses.
Those of us who analyse geopolitics and investment markets can see the world for what it is. We know the truth. We can profit from the stupidity that is forced on us and all the others of the world by an ideologically driven, selfish clan of bureaucrats and their hidden masters.
While it may be painful to watch, you can benefit from it both mentally and financially to live a happy, better life and make a real difference where you can.
Geopolitics and financial markets operate on the truth the world so sorely desires but is hidden from. Truth beats out ideology every time.
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