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Geopolitical Compass #22
The collapse of so many Western narratives continues to hasten.
TLDR: The LLC dinosaur, Orban gets vocal, Ukrainian ‘Democracy™’, Uyghur realities on the ground, and the new asymmetry of warfare.
Resource nationalism continues in the West. China’s money is no longer good - for certain things - in Australia.
This is starting to happen all over the world, but the key point here is with some exceptions (Australia, Canada), there is much more commodity wealth in the developing world than in the West.
At this rate, BRICS will soon have more member states than the EUSSR.
When you replace laws with ‘our rules’ you are bound to see capital flee.
The shift in investment flows shows how China is responding to souring relations with the U.S.-led West, and is strengthening trade and investment links with other parts of the world, in ways that could create new fault lines in the global economy.
The West will see more capital flows drain as it obliterates private property rights. The developed world is fast becoming an emerging market.
We hear a lot about the Uyghur’s along these lines:
This video was taken recently in China’s Xinjiang province which if we are to believe the Western media narrative is the home of persecution and genocide of the Uyghur population.
Note the interviewer is speaking Uyghur language as these workers can’t speak Chinese. He also has another video driving while listening to a Uyghur language radio station.
These workers are earning the equivalent of about USD 360 per month, with rent around USD 80 per month. What a torturous sweatshop and existence!
Now obviously this is only one data point, so take it for what it is. However it is on the ground amongst the people as opposed to hearsay and propaganda (?) spouted by US diplomats and
propaganda outlets ‘independent journalists’ like Bellingcat (mouth pieces of Western intelligence agencies) to ratchet up tensions with China and muster xenophobia among Western domestic audiences to suit an agenda.
“But they’re banning the Uyghur language in schools in the region!” I here you say?
This is something quite understandable if you want to encourage social cohesion in a wider society. Children have already been taught native Uyghur language by their families before they enter the education system, should they live their whole lives only knowing that language as opposed to being taught the local language of the country they are living in?
I speak from first hand knowledge about the difficulties my grandparents experienced for the last three decades of their lives by not learning English after they immigrated. Their functioning in everyday life was transactional at best, and they couldn’t talk with their grandson who was raised speaking English only (something I conversely regret about my upbringing).
Not learning the local language and assimilating more with the wider culture is how you encourage societal division, class structures and discrimination over the longer term. But then perhaps that’s exactly what Western interests want for China? It’s certainly what they’re encouraging in Western Europe, and look how that’s working out.
Something to keep in mind and provide contrast next time you see a news report designed to agitate you about China.
Viktor Orban, the only leader stating what others inside the EUSSR deny:
If one is involved in European politics as I am, then today, “western values” means three things: migration, LGBTQ and war.
Federalist governance in Europe has led to an unaccountable empire.
In case you missed it, check out my quick geopolitical and economic take on Indonesia earlier this week.
A great piece from Hayes on the limitations and inefficiencies of the world’s current corporate structures and processes.
Given the importance of companies to the productivity of the state, the state employs a wide range of state-sanctioned entities that help ensure companies’ compliance. These entities make up the “cartel of trust”. Auditors, accountants, lawyers, and bankers provide services for companies and help the state ensure everyone follows the rules and fosters trust between citizens and companies. In effect, these cartel members act as a tax on companies’ profits, as companies are required to employ them just to exist. A company needs a bank account to receive payment for its products and services, and pay its employees and suppliers. A company needs an accountant to prepare its financial statements in accordance with standards set by the state. A company needs an auditor to ensure the accountants have accurate figures. And a company needs a lawyer to write contracts, represent it in court, and help register it with the state. You cannot operate a company without these services.
But what type of organisational structure would / will an AI use? Would an AI that is just a thinking machine, who “thinks” in lines of computer code and has no physical body, organise itself economically using today’s standard company structure?
Most publicly traded companies produce quarterly audited financials, signed off on by an auditor who confirms that the included figures are correct. However, companies routinely juke the stats so they can claim to have great results as of one specific date, only to then go back to doing dodgy things an instant later. A great example is regulated banks. The regulators require quarterly audits, but banks “window dress” to make themselves look nice and strong for the auditors on the specific dates required. Everyone knows the banks are lying, but because they are technically following the rules, we all just shrug our shoulders and wait for the next bank to fail.
I find it patently absurd that we continue to think audited financials mean anything when we can use blockchains to be 100% accurate 100% of the time.
While it may not happen soon, the days of the Limited Liability Company in its present form are indeed just that - limited. Eventually a better system incorporating elementsHayes’ discussed will be developed in some form or another.
Blockchain and Bitcoin will dematerialise the need for much trust and a lot of middlemen.
This will present wide repercussions for the business models of government as well as accountants, auditors, law firms and existing monopolistic exchange businesses.
The shining beacon of democracy - Ukraine. Where this week not one member of parliament voted against Zelensky’s bill No. 9532 to extend martial law until November 16th, conveniently after when parliamentary elections were due to be held in October.
Politicians voting to keep themselves in a job and deny people a chance to vote them out? I’m shocked!
Russia has now destroyed Ukraine’s grain exporting (and weapons importing) port facilities in the Odessa region. This move was made to avoid a future expansion of the conflict into a maritime one in case Erdogan in Turkiye was crazy enough to go along with Ukraine’s plan to have NATO escorts accompany grain ships. No ports = no ships.
So what will now happen to Ukrainian grain? The same thing that happened last year - neighboring farmers in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria can expect their grain prices to plummet as cheap Ukrainian grain is dumped on the market.
With an inability to export grain via ship, Ukraine will revert to moving it over land via rail and truck. Unlike Zelensky’s continual virtue signalling of concern for hunger in Africa used as the excuse to desperately need the grain exported, watch as Ukraine takes the quickest cash offered to it.
If he actually cares about hunger, he’d be working hard now to ensure all this grain is loaded onto trains to the nearest ports in Poland and Romania to forward onto Africa. But I repeat myself.
Why is he so desperate to have the grain deal reinstated? It’s not his concern for hunger, but his need for the weapons transit and storage route to re-open.
On the other hand, Russia is determined to actually find a way to ensure food shortages do not rise as a result of these port removals by committing to both commercial and free grain to African nations:
So while Africa’s needs are met by a capable Russia, expect unrest and anger against Ukraine to grow in Europe in the coming months as markets are flooded with cheap grain. This unrest will be muffled by captured political leaders of course, but real people on the ground who will again feel the consequences for their own leaders (lack of ) actions and a ‘Ukraine above our own’ sentiment will start to become fed up.
As events in Ukraine are proving out, warfare is changing before our eyes. Gone is the asymmetry of expensive weapons wielded only by wealthy nations.
A US 12 billion aircraft carriers can be taken out by a few $11 million hypersonic missiles (though the US will deny it to the death, literally), effectively rendering them sitting ducks.
Now $11 million tanks can be taken out by $35k drones.
This asymmetry will ultimately lead to more peace in the world - you can only keep throwing so much money and men at overpriced military hardware before you either run out, or your people revolt.
Asymmetric warfare will ironically lead to more peace in the world… eventually.
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