Geopolitical Compass #23
Geopolitical Compass #23
Narrative failures across the board. Australian virtue signalling becomes costly. Bitcoin bad or good? Zelensky knows too much. Russia: Drill baby, drill! Coups: democratic or not?
TLDR: Australia no longer ‘the lucky country,’ Bitcoin’s miraculous transformation to good from ‘evil,’ oil exploration in Russia isn’t dying as predicted, good vs bad coups, and is it time for Zelensky’s curtain call?
Australia
In a similar manner to Germany and it’s most expensive electricity rates in Europe thanks to it’s high solar and wind contribution to the grid, Australia is determined to go down the same ideological route.
Power prices surged to their second-highest March quarter in 18 years, despite a glut of solar and wind production that sent prices into the negative during the middle of the day, according to a new report.
Despite the glut of wind and solar, prices still increased in Q2, with NSW having the highest average quarterly price ($137/MWh), followed by Queensland ($126/MWh), South Australia ($124/MWh), Victoria ($89/MWh) and then Tasmania ($64/MWh). They were the highest average second-quarter prices since 2005.
What makes this all the more tragic is that Australia, unlike Germany, has abundant access to hydrocarbon resources of oil, gas and coal that can provide cheaper and more reliable electricity to it’s people.
Instead it exports these commodities to other countries, and is barrelling ahead with renewables, making its domestic grid less secure, more inefficient and erratic while charging consumers more for the privilege of bowing to the renewable revolution fairy tale.
Australia, previously ‘the lucky country’ seems intent to FAFO on so many levels these days. Very sad.
Bitcoin
I’ve mentioned repeatedly for some time now that Bitcoin - counter to the narrative expressed by mass media - is good for the environment/climate. The FUD that Bitcoin will boil the oceans and cause babies to die is simply that, fearmongering from vested interests afraid of the politically independent money Bitcoin provides the world.
It seems that the pivot of BlackRock in recent months has now opened the floodgate for more acceptance. It was only a few months ago the New York Times published their sensationalist and erroneous puff piece on Bitcoin mining:
Now, all across financial media we are seeing more banks and firms embracing Bitcoin - now that the SEC is set to approve physical ETFs which they can all profit from. Funny that.
This week KPMG even came out with a report proclaiming the virtues, benefits and possibilities Bitcoin provides in helping climate change (if you believe in that sort of thing):
In closing, Bitcoin appears to provide a number of benefits across an ESG framework. Throughout its short history, new and innovative ways of leveraging the network and its native asset continue to emerge, such as helping to stabilize energy grids, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and even assist with providing sustainable heat to commercial and residential properties. Time will tell what Bitcoin’s role may look like in the transition to renewable energy and how it may serve as a financial tool to those in authoritative regimes or those experiencing significant inflation.
Of course none of this is news to anyone that has bothered to take more than a cursory look at Bitcoin, or been a reader of this Substack for any period of time.
The benefits Bitcoin will provide the world are astounding. As current systems collapse, there are hard times ahead - but sadly this is of our own making. Bitcoin will usher in a better world, providing solutions to energy waste as well as freedom from an oppressive monetary and bureaucratic system both for individuals and even nation states.
The only thing left for this to happen is for those still unaware to learn and embrace it. Slowly but surely, we’re getting there.
Chinese Uyghur’s
Following on from my commentary last week, an informative interview with Brian Berletic on the truth behind the myth of ‘China’s Uyghur genocide,’ its roots as a US funded tool to destabilize China from within using radicalized extremists and how China handled it.
A very unsuccessful genocide it seems.
Coal
Watch what they do, not what they say.
China approved more than 50 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power in the first half of 2023, research by environment group Greenpeace showed, with the world's top carbon polluter focused on energy security rather than cutting fossil fuel consumption.
Coal output in China surged 9% to 4.5 billion tons last year, more than half the world's total, and continued to rise this year, government data showed, with coal plants under pressure to offset a 22.9% decline in hydropower generation during the first half.
China has built more than 1,000 GW of coal-fired capacity from 2000 to 2022, enough to power the entire European Union and amounting to 69% of total global additions, according to data compiled by the Global Energy Monitor think tank.
If only there were Indonesian coal miners growing production at 20% annually, valued at PE’ below 3, EV/BITDA less than 1 and paying double-digit dividends.... oh wait.
Niger
Last week a military coup in Niger replaced the elected government. But did you know coups can be good or bad depending on what outcome your politicians want? Coups can be classed as democratic or undemocratic as needed;
Niger 2023
A coup in Niger to oust the elected government. The military leaders that have taken control have banned the export of uranium and gold to France. Niger supplies 15% of France and 20% of the EUSSR’s uranium.
An absolutely undemocractic coup! Cut off foreign aid, we need air strikes and troops on the ground!
Ukraine 2014
A coup in Ukraine in 2014 to oust the elected government, which was becoming too friendly with Russia.
Perfectly democratic, we’ll support you every step of the way. Those elections don’t matter; we’ll put ‘our guy’ in charge and even send our Senators, Ambassador and Cookies Nuland from the State Department to help.
It’s very straight forward. If a developing countries government is subservient to global leaders and puts Western interests ahead of its people, then it’s deemed a democratic government. If he’s our son of a bitch, it’s ok. If he’s not, get rid of him.
This has nothing to do with democracy, just control and power.
You’ll also see in mainstream media the current Niger coup vilified as being instigated by Russia because some people are holding Russian flags and slogans. So clearly, it must be Russia’s behind it. Why not, right? Putin is responsible for all the ills in the world; war, famine, inflation, covid, climate change, my bad hair day, and that woman at the bar turning you down for a date.
This ignores the inconvenient fact that Putin is on the record repeatedly over the years stating he does not support coups against elected governments - friendly to Russia or not. Sergei Lavrov reiterated this stance with regard to Niger:
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia believes the coup is an anti-constitutional act and it is necessary to restore the constitutional order in Niger.
In reality, what you’re seeing is something I’ve referred to numerous times; formerly subservient, colonial serf states are rising up against their long-term overlords - France in Niger’s case. Nations are seeing glimmers of hope with Russia’s rejection of Western attacks on its economy, culture and society. Small countries subject to decades of similar suppression are becoming encouraged by the new world order Russia is bringing about by standing up to the bullying of the West.
Previously subservient states, through no choice of their own, are now realising they can regain control of their countries. Will they succeed or fail in the future? Likely many will fail, human nature dictates corruption will still be rife and much change needs to occur to achieve progress, but at the end of the day - it’s their choice. Continue to have your nation’s wealth extracted by colonial masters. Or try to make it on your own with assistance from other countries like China and Russia, who seek mutually advantageous relationships, not serfdom?
It’s an easy choice for most, as we’ll increasingly see. Since most of the ‘democratically elected governments’ of the world were either installed by or have direct or tacit approval of Western leaders, and elections can be manipulated to achieve any desired result - expect much more of this in the future.
Worldwide people are becoming more aware just how rigged the system is, and playing within the rules set by overlords only gets you more of the same.
Russia
Economy
Less than one year ago in September 2022, this moron esteemed leader of the EUSSR proclaimed:
The Russian military is taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware because there are no semiconductors anymore.
If that were actually true, should NATO be embarassed it’s weapons and mercenaries are having their arses handed to them by such a miserable Russian military then?
It is the Kremlin that has put Russia’s economy on the path to oblivion.
Well don’t look now, but the World Bank has released GDP data of the 2022 world’s largest economies measured via Purchase Price Parity and Russia has just overtaken Germany (the moron above’s homeland) into 5th place and the biggest in Europe:
She was spouting absolute lies, but there are no consequences for an unelected politbureaucrat.
Predictions & Narrative Failures
In a similar vein to political leaders like above, do you wonder when the Western ‘experts’ and press will stop making similar foolish predictions on Russia which always embarrass them in short order (or at least should if they had any moral compass or journalistic integrity).
Remember in 2022 when Western experts proclaiming Russia’s oil industry would collapse without Western personnel, expertise and technology?
Due to sanctions, Russian energy companies no longer have access to Western financing and technology. For the Kremlin, this is an existential threat. The reserves of their current energy fields are gradually depleting, and though they have new fields in the Arctic, developing them will require huge amounts of money and top-notch Western technology. Without access to either, Russia’s energy production will slowly decrease in the coming decades.
Oops.
The bans have so far proved less potent, partly due to a high share of domestic oil-service providers. In 2021, before the invasion, international companies accounted for just 12% of the Russian market, according to Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, formerly Deloitte’s research center in the region. In 2022, that share dropped to 9%, their estimates show.
This is what happens when neocon wet dreams and delusion replaces critical thinking. Those basing investment decisions on wishes instead of reality will come out worse for wear.
We can also point to the reliable establishment mouth piece The Spectator with it’s “We were wrong then, and we’re wrong now” coping.
After Matthews’ embarrassment from the earlier article, no one is brave enough to put their name down as author of the 2023 piece.
In case the magazine takes them down, or we be accused of photo-shopping, here are the archived links to the magazine’s August 2022 and May 2023 articles.
Ukraine
Speaking of a beholden press, Western interests are now seeding the idea of Zelensky’s removal. Remember Politico is a Western political mouth piece. They tell you what they’re thinking and what their wishes and agenda are, not that of others.
Make no mistake, if Russia had wanted to assassinate Zelensky - they’ve had ample opportunity to do so. Hell, whenever planes fly in or out of the country, they have to seek tacit permission from the Russians - so yes, Russia literally knows where the guy is.
In reality, with the ineptitude being shown by the Cocaine Dwarf and his leadership circle, it’s hotly argued that the Russian’s actually find it preferable to leave him in place, knowing a capable leader perhaps from the military would pose a more competent opposition to their goals.
So if in the coming weeks or months you hear about Z being blown up, or deciding to commit suicide by shooting himself twice in the back of the head - prepare to see all the usual headlines that ‘Russia did it’ - but ask yourself, why exactly would they do it now?
Who actually benefits from the removal of a drug addled extremist, with terrible battlefield tactics that loses thousands of men per week? I’d argue Russia is benefitting from Z’s stupidity, no need to remove him.
Who benefits from removing Z that refuses to talk sense or engage in realistic negotiations to deescalate tensions when his Western backers are running out of weapons and ammunition to supply him? Perhaps the guys running out of ammunition to supply?
Conversely, who would stand to be exposed if Russia succeeds in the coming months and captures Zelensky with his knowledge of; which Swiss accounts all the cash funelled into Ukraine has gone, the destination of the weapons that have run through one door of Ukraine and straight out the other like a leaky sieve, or that Western interests have become the largest landowners in Ukraine?
‘10% for the big guy’ anyone? Remember, the big guys don’t like to be exposed.
Once it becomes clear to even the most pig headed neocons (looking at you Cookies Nuland) that Russia will prevail in reaching it’s goals, Zelensky will be seen as having too much inconvenient information to fall into the hands of Russian captors and will need to be dealt with by those who proclaim to back him.
For this to be pulled off effectively and bring about the 129th sanctions package against Russia, neocons need to start sowing the seeds amongst the public now so less questions are asked when it happens.
So if Russian troops are advancing on Odessa or even the Mariinsky Palace soon (hyperbole on my part - Russia doesn’t want Kiev), rest assured, the bullet that takes out Zelensky will come from behind him, not in front.
Failing Offensive
Putin the evil genius planting more shrubs to thwart the Ukrainian offensive.
Apparently this is the best excuse the Brits can come up with for another failed offensive. Or perhaps they’re right - just in case Russia is doubling down and has released an updated border security map…
Wrapping Up
I’ve gone heavy this week on illustrating narrative failures in an effort to illustrate so much of what we are told is designed to persuade us and foster our support for a specific agenda and is contrary to reality. For the moment, gone are the days when our own political leaders have our best interests at heart.
They will tell you what they need you to believe in order to continue their agenda, not necessarily the truth.
Be weary and selective of what information and sources you trust. People who you should be able to trust including the leader of your country are clearly exhibiting their biases and agenda. Don’t automatically take what they say as gospel.
Question everything.
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